Conflict in the Middle East and its implications for the Economic Corridor

New Delhi: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has cast a shadow of hesitation over the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).  

It may face significant challenges due to the recent hostilities between Israel and the Hamas militant group even though New Delhi and Washington DC are quite confident that the project will shape up an ambitious trade route connecting India to the Middle East and Europe. However, challenges and uncertainty due to the ongoing hostilities between Israel and the Hamas militant group may further delay the project.

The project's geopolitical motives, including countering China's influence and improving relations between certain regional players, are likely to be put on hold. What will be the future of the project remains uncertain presently as it navigates through the complex Arab world versus the Israel-US axis if the conflict extends.  

The project, announced during the G20 Summit in New Delhi, garnered support from influential nations, including the United States, the European Union, and Saudi Arabia. IMEC aims to establish a rail and shipping network that connects the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan to the Israeli port of Haifa, providing an alternative trade route to Europe bypassing the Suez Canal.

However, the Israel-Hamas conflict's timing poses a substantial obstacle and does not rule out that some invisible force is behind it to sabotage the growing India, Israel, UAE, US and Saudi Arabia relations.   

An agreement signed at the G20 summit established a timeline for the project, requiring participating countries to commit to an action plan within sixty days. The attack by Hamas on Israel falls within this critical time frame, potentially affecting the project's progress.  

US President Joe Biden told journalists while standing beside the visiting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that his analysis is based on his instinct and does not have any proof.

"I am convinced one of the reasons Hamas attacked when they did, and I have no proof of this, just my instinct tells me, is because of the progress we were making towards regional integration for Israel, and regional integration overall. We can’t leave that work behind," Biden said. This is the second time in less than a week that Biden has mentioned the India Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) as a potential reason for the terrorist attack by Hamas.

One of the major fears is that if the conflict expands, it can have an impact on the existing trilateral relationship between the UAE, Israel, and India, and delay the development of the project.

The challenges posed by the project's geographical route, as it traverses some of the Middle East's most volatile regions. These challenges extend beyond financing, encompassing stability and diplomatic cooperation, which appear elusive in the current context.

The project's potential to enhance international connectivity and contribute to stability in the region is seen as a counterbalance to China's influence in the Middle East and a platform for strengthening relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

However, as the conflict intensifies, the region faces increasing instability. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict's resolution and its political costs is likely going to put these plans on hold, raising questions about the project's future.

India, a significant beneficiary of the proposed corridor, remains committed to the initiative. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasized its long-term significance for global trade. However, the success of the project hinges on the evolving relations among the involved countries in the region, making it vulnerable to the shifting dynamics of the Middle East conflict.

The current situation in the region, regardless of its origins, has made the pursuit of peace considerably more challenging than it was a month ago. 

For the United States, a key objective was to enhance the normalization of relations between its close ally, Israel, and the Gulf monarchies while fostering economic integration. 

The Abraham Accords played a pivotal role in establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates. Subsequently, this paved the way for other regional economic driven arrangements such as the I2U2, involving India, Israel, the UAE, and the United States.

In addition to economic integration, Washington's broader aim is to create a new regional security architecture aimed at countering potential threats from Iran, Hamas, and other entities within the so-called Resistance Front, which is based in countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

However, the suspected efforts by Iran and its allies to assert leadership on the Palestinian issue have disrupted American initiatives, redirecting the focus away from Arab autocracies.

Furthermore, the escalation of conflicts involving Israel undermines the Gulf monarchies' objective of de-escalation in the region, as exemplified by the China-brokered agreement in March to restore Saudi Arabia's diplomatic relations with Iran after a seven-year hiatus.

In the short term, the ongoing conflicts in the region are undoubtedly causing disruptions. Nevertheless, it's important to recognize that the underlying strategic motivations of the involved parties within the region remain relevant, and these motives continue to shape their actions.