China's military cooperation with Maldives: A shift in alliances for island nation?

New Delhi: Major General Zhang Baoqun, Deputy Director of China’s Office for International Military Cooperation, paid a visit to Maldivian President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu at the President’s Office on Tuesday.

Reports from the President's Office indicate that discussions between President Muizzu and Major General Zhang covered a wide array of topics including strategic partnerships and the strengthening of defence cooperation between Maldives and China.

Both parties conveyed eagerness for future collaborations and partnerships, signalling a strengthening of ties in the defence sector. During the meeting, President Muizzu expressed gratitude towards the Government of China for their continuous support and assistance to the Maldives.

This meeting comes on the heels of an agreement signed between China and the Maldives on Monday, March 4, 2024. The agreement, facilitated by Major General Zhang Baoqun and Maldives' Minister of Defence Ghassan Maumoon, extends military assistance from China to the Maldives on a gratuitous basis. However, full details of the agreement were not yet made public.

The signing of this agreement highlights a notable shift in Maldives' political stance. President Muizzu's administration has expressed a clear intention to move away from previous alliances, particularly with India.

The administration's decision to deport Indian military personnel from the Maldives reflects this shift. President Muizzu has emphasized that foreign military presence in an official capacity will no longer be permitted in the Maldives. But to the contrary  Chinese defence agreements are automatically going to bring more Chinese military boots to the Island country.

This move marks a departure from the policies of the preceding administration led by former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, which maintained strong ties with India.

President Muizzu's alignment with China has led some international observers to label him as "pro-China." However, President Muizzu has reiterated his commitment to prioritizing Maldives' interests above all else.

Since assuming office, President Muizzu has fostered close ties with China, first official visit to China signalling a recalibration of the Maldives' geopolitical orientation.

The decision to engage with China comes amid concerns from some quarters about potential economic ramifications, particularly considering Maldives' existing debt to China.

Meanwhile, India has responded to these developments by intensifying its presence in the Indian Ocean region. The Indian Navy is set to inaugurate a new base on the strategically important islands of Lakshadweep, not far away from the Maldives on March 6. This move underscores India's efforts to assert control over the region and monitor military and commercial activities.

Analysts have raised concerns about Maldives' pivot towards China, warning of potential economic vulnerabilities akin to those experienced by Sri Lanka and Pakistan and to some extent Nepal.

There is apprehension that increased reliance on Chinese assistance could exacerbate the country's economic challenges and compromise its sovereignty in the long run.

As geopolitical dynamics continue to evolve in the Indian Ocean region, the Maldives finds itself at a crossroads, navigating the complexities of balancing strategic interests with economic imperatives. The trajectory of its relationship with China and India will undoubtedly shape the country's future geopolitical landscape.