China brokers talks between Myanmar Rebels and Junta leaders – Will it be able to quell the rebellion?

New Delhi: In a bid to address the escalating conflict between Myanmar's ruling military also called the Tatmadaw, and three-armed rebel groups, facilitated talks have taken place early this week with Chinese mediation, several regional and international media reported.

The talks were also confirmed by a junta spokesperson, involving representatives from the Myanmar military and three-armed rebel factions spearheading an anti-junta offensive fighting for the revival of democracy in the country.

The armed groups, namely the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army (AA) aligned with a pro-democracy parallel government, launched a coordinated offensive in late October, gaining control of military posts and towns near the Chinese and Indian border.

The talks were facilitated by China and were confirmed by Zaw Min Tun, a junta spokesperson, who hinted at the possibility of further discussions at the end of the month, Reuters news agency reported.

As the conflict continues, with casualties surpassing 360 civilians and over half a million displaced, the junta faces a formidable challenge. The success of the rebels in Operation 1027, a coordinated offensive by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has drawn support from various local groups opposing the regime.

China, according to the media, has expressed satisfaction with the peace talks' progress, citing "positive results." The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, pledged ongoing support and facilitation, emphasizing the benefits of easing tensions along the China-Myanmar border.

The rebels' recent victories and the junta's struggle to maintain control raise critical questions about the conflict's trajectory. With reports of Tatmadaw units surrendering and low morale, the rebels appear to have the initiative. The junta's brutal tactics, including imprisoning thousands and causing internal displacement, have fuelled local support for the rebels.

The rebels' rapid territorial gains have provided them access to additional weapons and ammunition, as well as captured military assets that could be used against the Tatmadaw. As the conflict unfolds, the rebels' control of the countryside may isolate Tatmadaw units in major population centres.

The ruling Myanmar Military's overstretched forces face challenges not only from the rebels but also from anti-junta forces within its controlled areas. With the reported assassination of a junta supporter in Yangon, internal dissent adds another layer of complexity.

As the Tatmadaw contemplates its next move, including potential retreats to major population centres, the rebels hold the advantage on the battlefield. While the junta may utilize airpower, history suggests that air superiority alone is insufficient in countering insurgencies.

In this volatile situation and with China's active mediation, will a ceasefire be achievable or will it lead to extended and potentially more destructive conflict in Myanmar?

 Thousands of Myanmar citizens, mostly have left their country because of the continuing conflict and live in the North East States of India as refugees. 

India sitting in the neighbourhood watches closely, hoping for peace in Myanmar that brings stability to the region and ends the suffering of the Myanmar people.