Building bridges: Can the US mediate in the escalating India-Canada diplomatic standoff?

New Delhi: For nearly ten days, the India-Canada diplomatic dispute has cast a shadow of uncertainty, leading to the freezing of visas, cautious travel, a reduction in consulate and high commission staff, and a detrimental impact on trade relations.

Regrettably, this standoff has also spilt over into social media, sowing seeds of hatred, trolling, rumours and fear among individuals and unsettling the Indian diaspora in Canada.

This turbulent episode was ignited when Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, raised the stakes by citing "credible intelligence" linking India to the assassination of Canadian Sikh Khalistan activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar back in June. This revelation sent shockwaves through the diplomatic realm, with India vehemently refuting any involvement in the matter.

However, what initially appeared to be a unilateral move by Canada's ruling party to secure domestic support has evolved into a complex diplomatic chessboard.

The Economist pointed out that Canada is not as isolated as critics may have assumed. The revelation that a portion of the intelligence implicating India was provided by the United States, a close ally to both nations, adds a new dimension to the dispute.

As this revelation came to light, leaders of the "Five Eyes" intelligence-sharing consortium, which includes the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, discreetly discussed the Nijjar case with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the G20 Summit in Delhi earlier this month.

The Indian media and a few analysts launched a massive criticism against Canada, portraying it as a second-tier power that India could easily meddle with, if the allegations were substantiated, or disregard if they proved false.

However, it is important not to underestimate the bonds of security and intelligence that tie the United States and Canada together. The assassination has significant implications for American, UK, Australia, and New Zealand's security interests, as similar attempts could occur in nations with substantial Sikh communities where Khalistan activities are also visible.

The Financial Times reported that US President Joe Biden and other Western leaders expressed their concerns to Prime Minister Modi about Canada's claims of Indian involvement in Hardeep Singh Nijjar's murder. This development underscores the growing role of the US in mediating the dispute.

Canada's comprehensive "months-long investigation," comprising human and signals intelligence, led to its allegations against the Indian government in Nijjar's killing. India, however, contends that Canada has not shared specific information on the case but expresses its willingness to investigate if such evidence is provided.

India also blamed Canada for harbouring the most wanted Khalistani terrorist on their land and complained that despite sharing the list of the wanted persons and their dossier repeatedly in the last couple of years, no visible action was reported.

As the India-Canada standoff intensifies over the Nijjar case, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called upon his other counterparts to treat the matter seriously, emphasising transparency, accountability, and justice.

The involvement of the United States in mediating this dispute appears increasingly likely, given the strategic importance of US-India relations. Failure to resolve the India-Canada tension could indirectly affect India-US relations, jeopardizing the hard-earned trust between the two nations.

Over the past ten days, five senior US officials and diplomats have issued statements, encouraging cooperation from Delhi while urging Ottawa to proceed with caution.

The New York Times reported that while the US provided Canada with intelligence related to Nijjar's assassination, Ottawa's intercepted communications provided more definitive evidence, leading to the accusations against India.

With Dr S Jaishankar, India's Minister of External Affairs, scheduled to be in Washington DC after attending the UNGA, speculation is rife that the US may emerge as an intermediary between New Delhi and Ottawa.

While the possibility of backchannel talks amidst these allegations remains uncertain, it is hoped that both Canada and India will explore avenues to reset their relationship.

For constructive progress, discussions in Washington DC, whether through backchannels or face-to-face meetings, must lead to a redefined working relationship. Canada must genuinely address India's grievances, just as India needs to take Canadian concerns seriously, respecting the bilateral extradition treaty and other issues of mutual concern.

It is crucial to emphasize that this is not just about the India-Canada relationship. It is about nurturing people-to-people connections and emotions. Approximately 1.8 million Indians have settled in Canada, with millions of their loved ones residing in India and other countries. Rebuilding trust and cooperation is not merely a diplomatic imperative but a humane one that has far-reaching implications for countless lives in both countries.