BJP’s Pawar game: Will it pay in 2024?

New Delhi: The induction of Ajit Pawar and his other Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) colleagues in the Maharashtra cabinet has left many wondering what the BJP has gained by this move.

Apparently, the saffron party had over the past few weeks conducted several surveys regarding its prospects in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.  

It is said that the surveys pointed out that the BJP will suffer a setback on a majority of the 48 Lok Sabha seats due to its move to install Eknath Shinde as the chief minister after he broke away from Uddhav Thackeray and brought down the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in the state.

In the words of Maharashtra political observers, Shinde has become a liability for the BJP and is unlikely to get any success for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). As such, the saffron party is keen to dump Shinde ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP is also concerned over the growing popularity of Uddhav Thackeray who is getting the sympathy of the common people over Shinde’s disloyalty.  

And with Sharad Pawar deciding to take Ajit Pawar’s betrayal to the people across the state, the BJP’s woes are certainly going to multiply given that the NCP boss as of now remains the most popular leader in Maharashtra.  

That said, the BJP for some time now has been looking for a prominent Maratha face who could mobilise the masses to negate the electoral losses it is supposed to suffer due to Shinde. Ajit Pawar filled all the criteria, and he promptly accepted the offer by parting ways with Uncle Sharad Pawar who was also his mentor in politics.  

For his part, Ajit Pawar has been a perpetual deputy chief minister and has been desperately trying for an elevation but without any success. On many occasions in the past, he had openly expressed his desire to become the chief minister of Maharashtra.

It seems he might get lucky this time given that the BJP wants to shun the Shinde baggage as soon as possible.  

The buzz in Maharashtra political circles is that assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar might soon take a call on the disqualification petitions filed against 40 legislators of the Shinde faction and 14 belonging to the Thackeray group.  

Narwekar has already issued notices to these legislators, including Shinde, asking them to file their reply on disqualification petitions against them.  

With Ajit Pawar's switch, the BJP is in a comfortable position and there will be no threat to the NDA government even if the Speaker decides to disqualify Shinde and other legislators belonging to the two factions of the Shiv Sena given that the saffron party has already roped in Ajit Pawar and his supporters.  

However, Ajit Pawar's induction appears to have riled many in the state.  

The Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena is upset over plum portfolios being given to the NCP rebels at its cost.  

There is resentment within the BJP too as many leaders were against doing any business with NCP leaders Ajit Pawar, Praful Patel, Chhagan Bhujbal, Hasan Mushrif and others who have been widely described as symbols of corruption.

For now, the BJP might have rubbished the reports of dumping Shinde but then it also needs to satiate Ajit Pawar’s hunger to stay afloat. Indeed, interesting times are ahead in Maharashtra.