Mission Lotus in Bihar

While Maharashtra's MVA government seems heading for a spell of President's Rule, the Nitish Kumar-led BJP-JDU government has apparently reached the tipping point too following the targeting of offices and residences of state BJP leaders by protestors of the Agnipath recruitment scheme.

Since 2020 – when Nitish Kumar took oath for his fourth term as the chief minister despite the BJP's emergence as the bigger partner – tensions have been simmering between the two alliance partners. 

Following recent incidents of violence and arson by the Agnipath protestors, the JDU-BJP battle has come out in the open. 

State BJP President Sanjay Jaiswal recently expressed outrage at the "failure of the state administration" in controlling the violence; indirectly hitting out against Chief Minister Kumar, who handles the Home Portfolio. 

Senior JDU leader Lallan Singh was prompt with his rebuttal, alleging that Jaiswal had issues of "mental stability", since the job of explaining the Agnipath scheme and tasks of weaning away the protestors from the path of violence was that of the BJP and the Central Government.

On Tuesday,  senior BJP leader Hari Bhushan Thakur Bachoul named senior JDU leaders Upendra Kushwaha and Lallan Singh – and also the state chief secretary Amir Subhani – as being responsible for the violence. 

Bachoul even blamed the Chief Secretary for "moving about with a religious identity". 

Meanwhile, offices and residences of BJP leaders are continuing to be guarded by the CRPF jawans and not the Bihar Police personnel. 

The JDU camp has been indignant that NDA partners were kept out of the loop in respect of the BJP's major policy reform plan such as the Agnipath recruitment scheme. 

The point is this: The BJP-JDU alliance has collapsed for all intents and purposes and the formal break can be expected to be announced shortly after the completion of the Presidential elections.

The gridlock

While the BJP had an outside chance of forming the government with the support of Independents and the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena, the saffron party faces a gridlock situation in Bihar because of the numerical strength of various political parties in the 243 member assembly. 

Against 77 members of the BJP, the JDU has 45; while the RJD has 76 members against 16 of the Left parties and 19 of the Congress. The situation being such, it is rather a tough ask for the BJP to reach the majority mark of 121 in the state assembly. 

Conversely, Kumar has been playing on the BJP's fears that he could rework the pact with Lalu Prasad to either continue as the Chief Minister himself - or to support RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav's claims for Chief Ministership. 

Therefore, the BJP and JDU have little option but to stay together in order to ensure the continuation of the NDA government.

Mission Lotus

After the BJP's impressive second term win in adjoining Uttar Pradesh, the saffron party has stepped up pressure on Nitish Kumar to vacate Bihar and pave the way to a candidate belonging to the BJP as the state chief Minister. But Kumar, apparently, is unwilling to oblige. 

While the Eknath Shinde revolt happened under Uddhav Thackeray's nose, Kumar – despite his otherwise vulnerable circumstances – has remained a tough nut to crack. 

He denied the party's Rajya Sabha nomination to former confidante turned suspected BJP mole RCP Singh and suspended state party spokesman Ajay Alok, who was suspected to have been pursuing the BJP line. 

In comparison to Thackeray, Kumar is a far more accomplished political player. Despite having remained in alliance with the BJP for decades, Kumar has retained his socialist moorings in a state where the backward versus forward debate can get triggered off in a jiffy.

Hard Options

Ideally, the BJP might have wanted to vacate the chief ministership and hand over the reins to a candidate of the saffron party. But this does not seem to be happening.

If things come to a head, the BJP could withdraw support to the Kumar government; forcing the way for the imposition of President's Rule.

In the run up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a central Rule status for Bihar could damage the BJP prospects - with Kumar likely to play on the victim card.

The other option for the BJP is to create circumstances for Kumar to recommend President's Rule himself. In any case, Bihar seems headed for big political changes this year.