Why is Mamata Banerjee afraid of Saira Shah Halim?

Kolkata (West Bengal): In a logical universe, the TMC should certainly not be afraid of Saira Shah Halim. The former is the overwhelming majority, across all formats of state elections, while the latter is a poll debutant, representing an erstwhile force in reboot mode, the CPI (M). But then, politics is a strange territory of unpredictable momentum, with those in power terminally in fear of the imminent uncertainty.

It all begins with education and exposure, as Saira arrives with impeccable socio-professional credentials, and a track record of productive secular activism. Babul Supriyo, the TMC aspirant for the Ballygunge By-Elections (Kolkata), is an outsider with a rather un-parliamentary resume, effortlessly switching allegiances, like a playback singer does with screen heroes.

The constituency in question was represented by a regional political icon, Subrata Mukherjee, whose personal magnetism overshadowed party affiliations, and all of the above present a bustling cauldron of possibilities.

History bears witness to the power of the anecdote, a seemingly innocuous one-off event, which terminally influences the course of the prevailing narrative, gaining gale force-velocity in a narrow period of time. A lady called Rosa Parks being denied a bus seat led to the Civil Rights equilibrium in the USA, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand drove us to the brink of the 
First World War, the Haymarket Affair in Chicago incubated the International Worker’s Day and the Bombay Naval Mutiny was inarguably a springboard for August 15, 1947. For every such universal instance, there are many local peers, which is why those riding the delirious narrative are constantly wary of the alluring anecdote, for which Saira Shah Halim is a likely candidate.

For starters, the deceased incumbent was a staunch local hero, orchestrating a significant Durga Puja and being immensely visible in the community. Saira too is a staunch local, a walk-the-talk advocate of meaningful integration, with proven contributions to the city.

The TMC nominee Babul is literally a rank outsider, a guest faculty in a university who values the permanent professor, and as loose as Shahid Afridi’s batting, when it comes to the written and spoken word. BJP is a diminishing local force in spite of reasonable voter share and the Congress is surely just a token presence.

Even the rigorous TMC supporter may well choose to vote for the individual on the other side, as a single seat seemingly makes no difference to the party’s overall destiny. Thus, a unique set of circumstances swaying the debate in favor of the preferred individual, over the chosen party, and therein lies the seeds of the anecdote.

Even the redoubtable Mamata Banerjee lost her assembly seat in 2021, and that is surely viable proof of this disruptive pattern, for reasons of personal affinity, positive or negative. The constituency is passionately proud of its legacy stature and partial towards the committed insider, a curious albeit proven strain of entitlement.

On Friday afternoon, the administration cracked down on a peaceful apolitical protest march, on causes aligned to the CPI (M) stance, a sure signal of emerging nervousness. Truly a case of history repeating itself, over the ages, when the provocation of the irritating anecdote rattles the impregnable narrative.

The TMC is scared of Saira Shah Halim because her victory may signal a slight, yet irreversible, shift in public consciousness, and we have many recent memories of political giants being demolished in a matter of years, locally and centrally.
To end, on a valuable yet clichéd note, the tidings at Ballygunge must be immensely reassuring to fans of democracy, a perpetual level playing field where all eventually have their rightful say. The vagaries of power may be cyclical but the spirit of our nation is timeless and that is exactly how joy overcomes fear.