Are the US–China relationship stabilising?

New Delhi: In a surprise development on the international stage, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to hold a crucial meeting on the sidelines of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco, according to sources within the US government and the media.

The backdrop for this diplomatic progress was set as China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi embarked on a pivotal visit to the United States early this week. Wang engaged in high-level discussions with President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

US President Biden held an extensive discussion with Wang, joined by Blinken and Sullivan, marking the latest in a series of high-level exchanges aimed at stabilizing their relationship, especially in the face of mounting crises in Ukraine and the Middle East.

These marathon meetings reflect a flurry of diplomatic engagements aimed at managing differences and averting potential conflicts between the two major global powers.

The primary objective of Wang's three-day visit was to lay the groundwork for an anticipated summit between Presidents Biden and Xi in November. The key question now is whether these meetings will lead to substantial negotiations and mediations that could help resolve two pressing global conflicts: the ongoing Ukraine-Russia tensions and the Israel-Hamas crisis.

In a statement following the meetings, the White House revealed that both sides are actively working towards a Biden-Xi face-to-face encounter on the sidelines of the APEC summit, which gathers 21 Pacific countries.

This visit by China's Foreign Minister is significant, as it is the first of its kind since 2018. The White House has described these discussions as a "good opportunity" to maintain open lines of communication between two nations with deep policy disparities. Wang's meetings with Blinken and Sullivan spanned over nine hours and were characterized as "candid and in-depth" by US officials.

During these interactions, President Biden's top aides raised several critical concerns, including the restoration of military-to-military channels, Beijing's actions in the South China Sea, Taiwan, human rights, the flow of fentanyl precursors, and the cases of Americans detained in China. The conflict in the Middle East was also a subject of frank discussion between Blinken and Wang.

President Biden underlined the importance of responsible competition management and maintaining open communication between the United States and China. He stressed that both countries should collaborate to address global challenges.

According to White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, President Biden viewed the meeting with Wang as a positive development and a valuable opportunity to continue the dialogue. The question of whether President Xi will attend the APEC summit in San Francisco, scheduled for November 11 to 17, remains unanswered as Beijing has yet to confirm his attendance.

Chinese media has portrayed this visit as a crucial step in implementing the consensus reached during the previous meeting between the two heads of state in the G 20 meeting in Bali last year.

Importantly, Wang's visit comes at a time of heightened tensions in the Israel-Hamas conflict. China has expressed its commitment to improving and stabilizing bilateral relations with the United States, highlighting the need for all parties to act responsibly and promote positive development based on principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation outlined by President Xi Jinping.

Both sides expressed a willingness to maintain communication and collaborate on global challenges. Discussions between Wang and Sullivan covered various mutual concerns, including China-US relations, high-level exchanges, and the Palestine-Israel conflict.

This visit took place at the invitation of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and it follows a series of recent bilateral diplomatic engagements aimed at salvaging what had been rapidly deteriorating relations earlier in the year.

However, as the United States has made unreciprocated Cabinet-level official visits to Beijing over the past six months, including visits by Secretary Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, some in Washington have questioned the balance of such interactions.

In a backdrop of such complex international relations, it is worth noting that just recently, Indo-Pacific Command reported an "unsafe intercept" by a Chinese fighter jet of a US Air Force B-52 aircraft over the South China Sea.

Looking ahead, the upcoming US elections in 2024 could introduce another challenge, as the "China card" is often played by presidential candidates to demonstrate easing relations with China.  Additionally, Taiwan's regional leadership elections in 2024 may further strain cross-Strain relations.

India must be closely watching

If the relationship between the US and China matures in the coming months, India will have to reshape India’s interests and foreign relations in a significant way. India will have to adopt its own Balancing Act.  India will need to relook at the evolving dynamics of India's relationships with both China and the United States, as well as its growing engagement with the West, more so when West Asia and South Asia are becoming difficult for India. India's economic relationship with China is complex, with trade imbalances and border disputes complicating the picture.

India's deepening ties with the United States and Western nations are driven, in part, by shared security concerns. These include countering terrorism, ensuring maritime security, and managing the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad (comprising the US, Japan, India, and Australia) is a notable example of this security alignment, aimed at promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific. How it is going to be seen in the coming (APEC) summit will be a challenge.

India then will have to further strengthen its foreign policy that reflects a willingness to engage with a diverse set of countries such as neighbourhood first policy, Russia, the Middle East, and African nations. This diversified approach will allow India to maximize its diplomatic influence and strengthen its position in multilateral organizations and forums.