Alarming increase of 96% in deaths due to global conflicts signals a violent new era

New Delhi: The Washington Post newspaper reported that a study released on Tuesday, by the Institute for Economics and Peace's annual Global Peace Index, revealed a staggering 96 per cent surge in global conflict deaths, reaching a historic high of over 238,000 deaths in the past year.

India stands at 126 rank out of 163 countries in the Global Peace Index chart which is an improvement of two positions from last year.

This shocking increase, driven primarily by two exceptionally deadly wars in Ethiopia and Ukraine, underscores a disturbing trend that suggests the dawn of a violent new era.

The study estimates that the Russia - Ukraine conflict alone resulted in 82,000 deaths in 2022. However, even more, tragic deaths were reported in Ethiopia, where the conflict between the national government and regional forces in Tigray claimed over 104,000 lives.

This figure represents the highest number of conflict deaths in a single year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. Troublingly, numerous other countries, including Mali and Myanmar, have also witnessed alarming spikes in conflict-related fatalities.

It is crucial to acknowledge that calculating the death toll in any conflict is challenging, and rife with practical obstacles in data collection within war and conflict zones and political pressures from various sources.

The global peace index has deteriorated for the ninth consecutive year, highlighting the persistent decline in global peacefulness. Based in Sydney, the Institute for Economics and Peace has been compiling the Global Peace Index since 2009.

The rising number of conflict deaths is just one aspect of a distressing paradigm shift. The study reveals that the number of countries involved in external conflicts has surged from 58 in 2008 to a staggering 91 in 2022.

The index, which ranks countries based on their peacefulness, has identified rising levels of conflict worldwide in 13 of the past 15 years. Meanwhile, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, a Swedish-based initiative with data spanning decades, reveals a substantial increase in state-based violence in recent years.

In the past year, 84 countries recorded an improvement, while 79 countries recorded a deterioration in peacefulness. There were 59 countries where political instability deteriorated over the past year, compared to just 22 where the indicator improved

This shift signals a departure from the era of terrorism and non-state violence, which, even though it exists,  tends to be smaller in scale as compared to international conflicts. 

Amidst the gloomy global landscape, there are a few glimmers of hope. Some countries, such as Libya and even Afghanistan, have made significant strides towards peace, with the latter reporting a remarkable 91 per cent decline in conflict-related deaths last year.

Additionally, Iceland has maintained its position as the most peaceful country in the world since the index's inception, while other nations like New Zealand, Ireland, Denmark, and Austria also rank high in peacefulness.

The war in Ukraine has had a profound impact on peacefulness, with Ukraine experiencing the largest deterioration, falling 14 places to 157th in the rankings. The economic ramifications of the conflict have been significant, with a 479 per cent increase in the economic impact of violence, amounting to $449 billion or 64 per cent of Ukraine's GDP.

Despite the conflict, Russia has seen improvements in its incarceration rate, violent demonstrations, terrorism impact, and homicide rates, with the latter reaching its lowest point since 2008.

Despite the conflict in Ukraine, military expenditure decreased in 110 countries. Terrorism showed improvement, with 70 countries reporting no attacks in 2021, the best result since 2008. Europe remains the most peaceful region, while the Middle East and North Africa face the highest level of violence.

The global economic impact of violence has surged by 17 per cent, amounting to $1 trillion, and now stands at $17.5 trillion in 2022, equivalent to 13 per cent of global GDP.

The rising costs have exacerbated food insecurity and political instability worldwide, with Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East facing the greatest threats.

As conflicts continue to unfold, global conflict deaths may escalate further. Recent events, such as the civil war in Sudan, which has already claimed an estimated 3,000 lives, indicate the precarious situation.

The world stands at a crucial juncture, where concerted efforts are needed to address the underlying factors driving these conflicts and steer humanity towards a more peaceful future.